来源：傅莹 盘古智库

 

Disorder or the Reconstruction of Order?

Fu Ying

Chatham House, London

 

Respected Dr. Robin Niblett, ladies and gentlemen

 

Thank you and I am honored to talk here in Chatham House.

 

My host asked me to talk on the topic of “order”,with a special focus on Asia Pacific, China-US relations and tensions in the South China Sea.

 

Before coming to the main topic, let me say how pleased I am to be back in London, and to breathe the familiarities in the air. During my years away from Britain, I maintained a keen interest in the progress in this country and continued to be impressed by how you bring economic recovery and how you addressing many difficult challenges.

 

I am amazed to see the ties between China and Britain growing stronger into a golden era. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s “superstate” visit to Britain last October marked a major step forward in our relationship.

 

A lot is happening here and boring is not the word for Britain. Many of us in China were quite surprised when Brexit (British exiting from the EU) passed the referendum. Just as we were trying to understand the consequences, we were surprised again to learn that many here were already regretting it and wanted an other referendum.

 

Now it is hard to predict how things will play out, but we all agree that the world is changing, raising many questions: Is this the beginning of disintegration of the European integration?

 

The most profound analysis I have read is by  Dr.Henry Kisinger who reminded people how Europe came out of the bitter fighting and rivalry and why and how European integration started in the first place. I thinkhis call for unity even in the Brexit, so things don’t get out of hand is quite thought provoking.

 

Many are asking what China will gain or lose in this. I think China tends to look at the world from a long term point of view and our best interest lies with stable global growth. What China can say at this moment is that, we remain committed to close ties with the UK. We will also continuethe policy of supporting EU’s integration.

 

Now let’s turn to our topic for today. The concern often raised is: will China challenge the US led order to set up its own system.

 

Let me start by borrowing from Raymond Carver:what are we talking about when we talk about order?

 

It is commonly accepted in Britain and the west that the existing world order is built and led by the US, which is also known as“Pax Americana” (Latin for “American Peace”). This order, as I see, contains three pillars: first, American or western values; second, the US led military alignment;third, the UN and its institutions. This world order has its roots in the historyof international politics and also has its modern contributions. The United States,as the leader for this order system has also reaped great benefit from its leadershiprole.

 

But where does China stand win-win this world order? It is not hard to see, China is never fully embraced to this order system.Despite its tremendous progress, China has long been alienated politically by the western world. The US-led military alliance puts their interests above other’s and pays little attention to China’s security concerns. It is even asserting increasing security pressure on China in the Asia-Pacific these days. 

 

In the mean time, viewed from a wider perspective,this world order system is also facing multiple challenges, not necessarily from China but more often because it can’t offer solutions to all problems in today’s world, and sometime it even creating more problems.

 

Take for example, over the years, the global promotion of the western values is not always successful, especially in countries where new governing structures failed to grow fast enough to replace the originalones that were brought down. Chaos can occur and even spill over, which only reinforces disorder. When the war on terror was first launched, who would think terrorism would one day take semi state form? When the first sparkle of revolution erupted in the Arab World who would think one day Europe would be faced with millions of refugees.

 

While the old order structure is not in keeping with the time, globalization is changing the world, and also bringing challenges to its power structure.

 

Over the past decades, we have seen diffusion and shifting of capital, technology and market from the center of the developed world to the peripheries, where the less developed world picked up economic speed.

 

And now we start to see the decentralization of the world power along the same line. The newly rising developing countries are expected to participate more in the world affairs, and take more responsibility.

 

The diffusion of power is a reality in today’s world. But, should it be allowed to lead to disorder of the world and why can’t the international community move fast enough to re-shape the order structure?

 

China, as a rising country, is growingly aware of the rising international expectation as well as the weariness for its role. So,is China going to challenge the US and is a power rivalry inevitable?

 

What you hear from the Chinese leaders is that,China is part of the international order. One needs to note that the term used here is “international order” and what it refers to is the UN and its institutions, including the principles of international law. This may overlap with the aforementioned “world order” but is not exactly the same. China has a strong sense of belonging to thisUN led order system, as China is one of its founders and a beneficiary, a contributor,as well as part of its reform efforts. “There is no intention to unravel the systemor start all over again.” quoting from the Chinese President Xi.

 

Indeed, China is learning and offering its own ideas and initiatives to improve the international order system, for example, the initiation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), which Britain has also signed up to, and the Silk Road economic belt initiative which would increasethe connectivity between Asia and Europe. In the security field, the Chinese Presidentalso proposed to build common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security.

 

Currently, an important security challenge is the dispute in the South China Sea on which China and the US have serious differences.

 

Apparently, I think the US is taking a geo-political perspective and this probably comes from a long line of thinking. 

 

Theories about geopolitics are not unfamiliar for you. It was the British scholar and MP Halford John Mackinder, at the beginning of the 20th century, advanced the ‘Heartland Theory’ and stated: “Who rules the Heartland commands the ‘World-Island’ and therefore commands the World”. That, I understand, guided the European centered decades of geo-strategic rivalry.

 

When the US came to the top of the world, it switched geo-strategic emphasis from land to the sea. According to Nicholas Spykman’s Rimland Theory: Who controls the Rimland rules Eurasia, and therefore controls the destiny of the world. So for the US, controlling strategic sea passages is vital for its world supremacy.

 

The reason I am recalling this is to try to understand, why China’s maritime activities like the reconstruction on the Nanshaland features would so much get on the nerves of the US.

 

To put things to perspective, the South China Sea covers 3.5 million square kilometers, but all the Islands and Shoals put together amount to less than 20 square kilometers. The US military and media magnified the issue and presented China’s construction works as sign of geo-strategic ambition.During my visits to the States, I often hear the concern that a confrontation between China and the US is unavoidable if China continues to grow economically.

 

But for China, especially in the eyes of the general public, the focus of the concern is the sovereignty over Nansha islandsand shoals and the surrounding water. Nansha is the most southern group of land features of the four archipelagos in the South China Sea. Chinese people firmly believe that we own those land features since the ancient times.

 

China’s authority over Nansha was return to China from Japan after the World War II and was respected widely. For instance,countries including the US apply to the Chinese side when carrying out maritime research activities. It was during the deep Cold War some neighbors started to occupysome land features, claiming discovering new territories. But really, who would discover new territories after the World War II?

 

China improved relations with neighbors during the 1990s and with years of patient negotiations arrived at consensus about allowing the disputes be resolved bilaterally through peacefully negotiation while the region moved on for cooperation. DOC culminated the efforts and provided rules based structure for managing the disputes.

 

But the recent years we saw increasing provocations by some claimant countries in disregard of the DOC spirit and in an attempt to maketheir occupation of the Chinese territory permanent and legal. China, frustrated by futile persuasion, decided to reinforce its own presence including keeping better vigilance and making enlargement construction.

 

All this was happening against the back drop of the US Asian Pacific rebalancing which has growing military content and is giving the greater emphasis on the interest of the alignment. This development added a new dimension. Tension started to heat up when the US sent navy ships and aircraftsto operate sometimes very close to China’s land features, posing serious threat.More and more in China, people believe that the US is behind those countries who are undermining China’s interest.

 

Act invites reaction and misjudgment lead to response. To overcome tension, China and the US need to have better understanding of each other’s intentions and avoid misjudgment.

 

So let me specify, what China wants first and foremost is to protect its sovereignty and right. To observe China, one should not lose sight of the historical perspective. This country stumbled into the 20th century with its capital under the occupation of the imperialists’ armies, and for overa century before and after, China suffered the humiliation of foreign invasion and aggression. That is why the Chinese people and government are very sensitive about territorial integrity and would never allow such recurrence even if it’s just an inch of land. We need sufficient defense to ensure that.

 

Second, China has high interest in maintaining freedom and safety of navigation of the international transportation route in the South China Sea and would make effort to ensure that.

 

Third, China believes that we share common interests with the neighboring countries in maintaining peace and stability in the region.We do not have an agenda to gain supremacy. China is negotiating the Code of Conduct with the ASEAN countries to build effective rules.

 

Fourth, fundamentally China and the US have common interests in keeping peace and freedom of navigation. For the greater good,the two countries should be able to find a way to cooperate.

 

I don’t see why China and the US should enterinto geo-strategic rivalry which will only lead to prolonged power fight. The world has seen so much of it and who knows at the turn of corner it’s not the famous “ThucydidesTrap”.

 

Last July the 1st, we marked the 95th anniversary of the founding of Communist Party of China. President Xi Jinping who is also the General Secretary of the Party made a important speech to reminding the Party tokeep to the original aspirations which would lead us to new success. In his speech,he also touched on world affairs and reiterated China’s foreign policy objectiveas promoting world peace and prosperity as well as China’s willingness to work withthe world to promote the international order to be fairer to all countries.

 

So on that note, I want to conclude by saying that when we think about the future order, we may need to go beyond the constrain sand hope for amore overarching concept, like “a global order” which should accommodate as much as possible and everything and anything that is needed in this new era canbe included and every country and region’s concerns and interest accommodated. In a sense, it should provide a common roof for all of us.

 

Thank you. (End)

 

 

全国人大外事委员会主任委员傅莹现场图

 

附中文翻译全文

探讨失序抑或秩序再构建问题

 

——傅莹在英国皇家国际问题研究所发表演讲

 

尊敬的罗宾·尼布里特博士，女士们、先生们，

 

感谢皇研所邀请我来发表演讲。

 

今天主办方希望我谈谈对秩序问题的看法，特别是从亚太的角度，包括中国如何处理与美国的关系和南海争议。

 

 

 

进入正题之前我想先说一下，很高兴又回到伦敦，感觉空气中都漂浮着熟悉的气息，自别伦敦我一直继续关心这里的动态，对英国复苏经济和应对多种挑战的努力印象深刻。

 

习近平主席去年十月对英国的“超级国事访问”为中英合作谱写了新篇章，两国打造黄金时代的前景令人充满期待。

 

英国人一向善于制造惊奇，最近脱欧公投获得通过令世人始料不及，而第二天看新闻时，已经有人追悔莫及甚至想重新投票，再次让世人跌破眼镜。

 

现在还难以预料事态的前景，但我们都看到世界在发生变化。人们在问：欧洲一体化是否已经止步甚至走向瓦解？这是否会加快以西方为中心的世界权力结构的去中心化？我看到的各种评论和分析中最为深刻的是基辛格博士的呼吁，他希望不要忘记欧洲如何终结了纷争和开展一体化的初始目的，主张即便英国要脱欧，英伦和欧陆也要保持团结之心，不要让欧洲从小的分离走向大的分裂。

 

许多人问，此事对中国何益何损？其实中国对世界一向持整体观念，中国的最大利益在于全球的稳定发展。目前我们要表明的是，中国仍然要与英国更加紧密地合作，也要继续支持欧洲一体化进程。

 

对于当今世界的秩序，一方面有人担心中国要挑战美国主导的世界秩序，或者另起炉灶；另一方面又有人忧虑21世纪的世界将滑向失序。我今天主要谈第一个问题，当然两种担心既是相互矛盾，又是相互关联的。

 

请允许我借用雷蒙德·卡佛的一句经典句式：当我们谈论秩序的时候，我们在谈论什么？

 

在英国和西方，人们认为当今世界秩序是由美国建立和主导的，是“美国治下的和平”（Pax Americana）。概括看这个秩序有三个支柱：一是美国或西方的价值观；二是美国主导的军事联盟；三是联合国及其下属机构组织。这个秩序有其形成的历史原因，也在现代世界发挥作用，美国作为主导者从中获利匪浅。

 

讨论中国对这个秩序持什么立场，首先需要搞清楚中国与之是什么关系？必须承认，所谓美国主导的世界秩序从未完全接纳中国。尽管中国经过30多年的改革开放取得巨大成功，但因与西方体制有差异，长期以来在政治上受到排斥。美国主导的军事联盟也不关心中国的安全利益，甚至在亚太对中国构成安全压力。所以至少可以认为，这个秩序在包容性上存在缺陷。

 

同时，这个“世界秩序”确实面临多重挑战，但并非源自中国，而主要是源于它无法为今天世界的所有复杂难题提供解决方案，有时甚至制造的问题多过解决的问题。

 

例如，美欧在全球推广西方价值观的做法已被证明效果不彰，尤其是在一些国家，当旧的治理体制被破坏时，新嫁接的体制却不能有效运作，权力真空引发更多混乱，甚至动荡外溢,结果带来的不是秩序，而是失序。想想看，反恐战争打响的时候，谁能想到有朝一日恐怖主义会发展到准国家形态？在阿拉伯世界燃起革命之火的时候，谁又想到后来欧洲会面临数以百万计的难民潮？

 

在防御领域，美国主导的军事联盟将其安全利益置于他国之上，在全球安全中引发新的矛盾，尤其在一些地区争端中导致更为复杂的局面。这如果控制不好在某种程度上也会加快失序。

 

全球化的进程改写了世界，同样也改变着世界力量格局。过去几十年来，我们先看到资本、技术和市场从西方发达中心向更加广泛的边缘地区扩散和转移，使较不发达国家有条件实现经济超越型发展。而现在我们也开始看到，伴随这个转移和扩散，世界权力也出现分散化的趋势。新兴国家被期待更多地参与世界事务和分担责任。

 

权力的分散化是当今世界的一个现实，然而，世界是否必然要走向失序？难道国际社会不能及时应对、重新构建或者是补充秩序结构？

 

中国作为崛起性力量，已经认识到外界对中国发挥更大国际作用的期待和关切，那么，中国是否要发起挑战，是否必然走向与美国争夺世界权力？ 

 

世界常听到中国领导人讲，中国是“国际秩序”的一部分。需要澄清的是，此处讲的“秩序”指的是联合国及其附属机构组成的“国际秩序”，也包括国际法原则。它或许与“美国治下的世界秩序”有重叠，但不完全重合。中国对这个由联合国主导的国际秩序有很强的归属感。中国当年参与其创立，现在是受益者、贡献者，也是改革者。用中国国家主席习近平的话来讲，中国的意图“并不是推倒重来，也不是另起炉灶”。

 

中国正在学习和适应伴随成长而来的高涨的国际期待，正更加主动地为改革和完善国际秩序贡献力量。例如：中国启动了亚投行,英国也加入其中。中国还提出了能更好地连接亚欧大陆的“一带一路”倡议。再比如，在安全领域，中国国家主席倡导共同安全、综合安全、合作安全与可持续安全。

 

目前的一大挑战是南海争议问题，中美双方陷入分歧的困境。

 

显然，美国更多的是从地缘竞争的角度看待和处置与中国在南海的分歧的。

 

从学理的角度讲，美国这样表现有其战略文化根源。在座各位对地缘政治学并不陌生，是英国议员和学者的麦金德（Halford John Mackinder）20世纪初最早提出“中心地理”学说（Heartland Theory），主张“谁控制了欧亚大陆心脏地带就掌握了世界”，这个思想影响了以欧洲为中心的地缘政治思维，乃至其后的战争与争夺。

 

当美国上升到称霸世界之后将重点转向海洋。美国学者斯皮克曼（Nicholas John Spykman）提出“边缘地带”理论，主张谁控制了边缘地带，谁就控制了欧亚大陆，也就掌握了世界的命运。

 

我回顾这一段是试图理解，美国的霸权战略基于对海上要冲的控制，由此可以了解为什么这个国家对其他国家的海上行为天生地敏感，对中国在南海扩建岛礁如此紧张。

 

事实上，南海总面积达350多万平方公里，而南沙群岛所有岛礁面积加起来不到20平方公里,而且远离国际航道。美国媒体无限放大中国的岛礁建设，让中国看起来有地缘政治的野心。我在美国常听到秉承“现实主义者”理念的人预测，如果中国经济持续增长，美中冲突不可避免。

 

然而对中国而言，尤其是中国民众，南海的核心问题是围绕处于南海四个群岛最南面的南沙群岛部分岛礁的领土主权和相关海域的争议。中国民众坚信，中国自古以来就对南沙群岛拥有主权。

 

中国在南沙群岛的治权二战后被日本交还中国，一直得到外界尊重，包括美国在内的许多国家的海洋勘测等事项都是向中方申请的。冷战时期有东南亚国家开始侵占南沙岛礁，甚至声称发现了“新领土”。然而，二战以后地球上哪里还有新领土可以被“发现”？后来在南海发现的油气资源使问题更加复杂化。

 

90年代中国与周边国家改善关系，经过多年努力，与存在争议的国家达成共识，我们决定通过双边谈判和平解决问题，解决之前搁置并且寻求共同开发。这个分歧没有影响东亚地区成功地走向多边合作。《南海各方行为宣言》的签署为管控好争议提供了制度框架。

 

然而，令中国苦恼的是周边个别国家没有遵守《宣言》的精神，试图把对中国领土的占领永久化和合法化，包括扩建设施和划分附近海域。中国在忍耐多年劝说无果后，采取了应对和强化在南海存在的举措，包括更加严格地警戒和扩建岛礁改善设施。

 

而美国的再平衡战略突出军事安全色彩，更多强调盟国利益，给南海地区领土争议增加了新的维度。尤其美国不断派军舰军机靠近中国岛礁，甚至进入几海里内，构成对中国军事和安全上的威胁。越来越多的中国人相信美国正在支持一些国家与中国对抗。

 

行动引发行动，错误判断导致相应反应。要走出因南海问题形成的安全困境，中美需要澄清彼此意图，避免误判。

 

中国在南海问题上的目标首先是维护主权权益。观察中国不能忽略历史维度。这个国家是在首都被帝国铁蹄践踏之下跌跌撞撞进入20世纪的，曾有一个多世纪屡遭外敌入侵、强权欺凌的屈辱经历。也正是基于此，中国人民和政府始终对涉及领土主权完整的问题抱有极强的敏感性，绝不会允许那样的事哪怕在局部重演，哪怕是寸土。也为此，我们需要足够的军事防御能力。

 

第二，南海有重要国际航道，中国是最主要使用者，希望它保持畅通，航行自由。中国需要提高在南海提供公共服务能力。三座大型灯塔已建成投入使用，同时我们也有海洋监测和环境保护方面的计划。

 

第三，中国与周边国家在南海的共同利益是维护地区和平稳定。我们没有旨在谋求地区霸权的动机和设计。中国也正同东盟国家全面有效落实《宣言》，加紧磋商“南海行为准则”，共同构建地区规则。

 

第四，美国在南海问题中不是争议方。根本上讲，中美都需要南海和平和保持航行自由，应该也需要逐步走向合作。

 

我不认为中美应该进入地缘竞争的状态。一旦开启，双方将难免陷入漫长的权利争斗，焉知其尽头不是“修昔底德陷阱”？

 

刚刚过去的7月1日是中国共产党建党95周年纪念日。中国国家主席、中共中央总书记做了重要讲话，提醒全党“不忘初心，继续前进”，坚守为人民服务的承诺。在讲话中，他也谈到外交政策和对国际秩序的看法，重申了中国促进世界和平与发展的外交理念，表示中国愿意与世界一道，为构建公平的国际秩序努力。

 

借此，让我们回到秩序的话题。在考虑未来秩序时，也许我们需要超越现有概念，提出“全球秩序”这样一个更加宏观的概念，最大限度地容纳全球治理、大国协调、多边合作、南北对话等等，把我们这个时代所需要的各种支柱和环节都包容进来，包容各个国家和地区的利益和关切。提供一个大家都能舒适地居于其中的秩序屋顶。

 

谢谢！